The simple strategy thats produced 126 winners from 162 bets since 2004 at the Cheltenham Festival It is notoriously difficult to pick winners at the Cheltenham Festival. The meeting has a welldeserved reputation for being a punting graveyard. Even the most experienced, professional and well-prepared race bettors in the game can find it a real challenge to turn a profit over the four days. This isnt really surprising when you think about it. The Cheltenham Festival is the Championship fixture of National Hunt racing. Every jumps yard in the country wants to have runners good enough to send there. Every owner, every trainer and every jockey dreams of standing in the winners enclosure with the roar of the Cheltenham crowd ringing in their ears. When it comes to Cheltenham the practice runs and the dress rehearsals are well and truly over. Cheltenham is for real. It is do or die. There are no second chances. It is a case of perform on the day or go down as an also ran. Every runner that shows up at the Festival whichever race is being contested has been aimed, trained and tuned up to be pitch perfect on the day. Every single runner will be trying thats guaranteed. Not a single runner is being saved for some future prize or being given an easy blow in preparation for some race in two weeks time. Every single runner is there with aspirations of winning. The result is 27 highly competitive races with multiple live contenders going hell for leather against one another in all of them. Entering the punting minefieldThat fact on its own makes it hard enough for punters. But other factors also contribute to make the individual puzzles devilishly difficult for punters to penetrate and solve: In the handicap events shrewd trainers eager to gain every single edge they can will have protected the handicap marks of their live runners by limiting their racecourse appearances and making sure one way or another that their charges are not seen at their best until the big day at the Festival. Runners in the Novice and Juvenile events will be improving all the time but the scope and scale of that improvement might well be hidden from the punting general public and what is known at the yard might only become evident to a wider audience as a Festival event unfolds. Even the pace that Festival races are invariably run at can make things extra confusing for punters. Races are generally run at a red-hot pace much faster than would be the case at an ordinary meeting. As such, horses that get a trip ordinarily can struggle to get home over it at the Festival and runners with stamina which would ordinarily be of most interest over longer trips can become live contenders over shorter distances. Its a punting minefield and anybody who claims to have cracked the secrets of finding a regular flow of winners at the Festival is either a romancer or one hell of a punter. There is picking winners and then there is picking winning bets The great thing about relatively recent advances in betting technology means we dont have to find winning horses to find winning bets. Far from it betting exchanges such as Betfair and Betdaq offer punters the opportunity to play bookmaker and lay horses. In other words, the betting exchanges make it possible to bet that horses will lose. And, in recent years plenty of astute punters have turned a profit at the Cheltenham Festival doing just that. How have they done it? By identifying, isolating and laying (betting that a horse will lose) a specific group of horses that regularly produce losing performances at the Festival. Over the period 2004-2010 the specific group of horses Im talking about offered exchange layers an average of 23 opportunities to bet per Festival. And over that period more than 75% of those horses lost their races and produced winning positions for the exchange players who chose to oppose them. Im talking about a very specific group of horses. They are easily identified in the minutes before a race goes off. And there is no shortage of qualifiers. This group of runners has produced 162 runners since the start of the 2004 Festival through to the last race of the 2010 Festival. Of that 141 runners 126 of them lost or 77.7% of them. Thats quite some losing strike rate? Only 23.5% of these runners actually win. We must be talking about opposing horses priced at 20/1 or more here? No. I would never advocate laying horses at that price. Its a dangerous business. When you back a horse priced at 20/1 you are risking the 1 and hope to win the 20. When you lay it is the other way round. You hope to win the 1 but should the horse win then you lose the 20. Dont forget that when you lay a horse on the exchanges you are actually playing bookmaker and as a layer you must adopt and adapt to the bookmakers experience of the game. Sure, we could all sit here this afternoon and pick out horses priced at 20/1 and bigger and lay them on the exchanges. The likelihood is that if we used our noodles and did our research properly then we might identify 10 or 15 losing horses in a row. If we laid them on the exchanges that would be 12-15 consecutive winning bets for us happy days. But sooner or later we would get caught out. 25/1 shots win every other day. And if wed laid a winning 25/1 shot on the exchanges then wed be paying out 25 to every 1 laid. That would wipe out our earlier good run and then some! No. I am not talking about laying big priced horses which the market has deemed unlikely to win. The group of horse layers should take most interest in. It will probably surprise you to learn that the group of most interest to layers is that consisting of horses most fancied by the market, those priced up at the shortest prices the horses which are sent off by the market at Starting Prices 4/1 or less. Since 2004 a total of 162 heavily fancied horses have been sent off in Festival races at Starting Prices of 4/1 or less. Despite being heavily fancied 126 (or 77.7%) have subsequently failed to live up to their market valuation and have lost their races producing profits for those who opposed the markets view and laid them on the exchanges. Lets take a look at the evidence:At the 2004 Festival 19 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 15 (or 78.9%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos Rigmarole 4/1 8th Keepatem 4/1 7th Rooster Booster 11/8 2nd Haut Cercy 100/30 8th Kicking King 7/2 2nd Thisthatandtother 5/2 F Brave Inca 7/2 Won Inglis Drever 7/4 2nd Martinstwon 7/2 14th Moscow Flyer 5/6 4th Azertyuiop 15/8 Won Our Vic 11/8 3rd St Pirran 4/1 Won Iris Royal 11/4 2nd La Landiere 5/2 6th Best Mate 8/11 Won Impek 3/1 3rd Baracouda 8/11 2nd Lord Atterbury 3/1 P At the 2005 Festival 23 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 17 (or 73.9%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos Hardy Eustace 7/2 Won Spot Thedifference 4/1 Won Commanche War Paint 100/30 F Ease The Way 4/1 14th Back In Front 7/2 9th War Of Attrition 11/4 7th Distant Prospect 100/30 9th Missed That 7/2 Won Moscow Flyer 6/4 Won Azertyuiop 2/1 3rd LAmi 4/1 4th Well Chief 7/2 2nd Comply Or Die 3/1 2nd Ravenswood 7/2 15thRule Supreme 4/1 3rd Our Vic 7/4 P Baracouda 6/5 2nd Point Barrow 100/30 5th Brewster 9/4 3rd Kicking King 4/1 Won Sleeping Night 7/2 Won Akilak 7/2 3rd Lord Atterbury 4/1 4th At the 2006 Festival 22 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 16 (or 72.7%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos Good Step 7/2 6th Native Jack 7/2 Won Sweet Wake 5/2 5th Brave Inca 7/4 Won Moulin Riche 100/30 P Denman 11/10 2nd Fota Island 4/1 2nd Kauto Star 2/1 F Equus Maximus 5/2 12th Far From Trouble 7/2 3rd Mighty Man 4/1 3rd Fondmort 100/30 Won Impek 100/30 3rd Oulart 4/1 8th Studmaster 4/1 10th Harbour Pilot 11/4 P Detroit City 7/2 Won Beef or Salmon 4/1 11th Desert Quest 4/1 Won Andreas 4/1 F Black Jack Ketchum Evs Won Mister Hight 4/1 8th At the 2007 Festival 26 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 21 (or 80.7%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos Hardy Eustace 3/1 4thDont Push It 4/1 F Detroit City 6/4 6th Heads Onthe Ground 5/2 Won Fair Along 100/30 2nd My Way De Solzen 7/2 Won Amaretto Rose 2/1 3rd Newmill 4/1 4th Denman 6/5 Won Silverburn 7/2 4th Mad Fish 4/1 8th Well Chief Evs F Aran Concerto 5/2 5th Mighty Man 100/30 2nd Gungadu 2/1 F Our Vic 7/2 2nd Monets Garden 7/4 4th Black Jack Ketchum 2/1 F New Little Bric 7/2 7th Opera Mundi 7/2 19th Wichita Lineman 11/8 Won Saintsaire 5/2 6th Whyso Mayo 2/1 2nd Fair Along 3/1 25th Kauto Star 5/4 Won Lounaos 7/2 10th At the 2008 Festival 24 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 18 (or 75%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos Wonderkid 5/2 6th Garde Champetre 4/1 Won Sizing Europe 2/1 14th Noland 7/4 3rd Ashkazar 15/8 2nd River Liane 11/4 12th Mossbank 4/1 2nd Inglis Drever 11/8 Won Dont Push It 5/2 F Zaarito 3/1 3rd The Listener 100/30 5th Albertas Run 4/1 WonOur Vic 4/1 Won Apt Approach 4/1 6th Voy Por Ustedes 5/2 2nd Tamarinbleu 7/2 7th Master Minded 3/1 Won Franchoek Evs 2nd Denman 9/4 Won Sweet Kiln 7/2 11th Kauto Star 10/11 2nd Choma Womba 100/30 3rd My Petra 3/1 2nd Aigle DOr 4/1 13th At the 2009 Festival 27 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 21 (or 78.9%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos Garde Champetre 7/2 Won Cousin Vinny 9/4 5th LAmi 7/4 2nd Tatenen 4/1 F United 100/30 2nd Binocular 6/4 3rd Quevega 2/1 Won Karabak 4/1 2nd Rite of Passage 5/2 3rd Master Minded 4/11 Won Cant Buy Time 4/1 4th Diamond Harry 4/1 3rd Mikael DHaguenet 5/2 Won Cooldine 9/4 Won Alexander Severus 5/2 4th Kasbah Bliss 10/11 4th Punchestowns 100/30 2nd Voy Por Ustedes 4/5 2nd Poker De Sivola 7/2 7th Big Eared Fran 7/2 3rd Daves Dream 7/2 6th Kauto Star 7/4 Won Cape Tribulation 4/1 5th Walkon 4/1 2nd Poquelin 3/1 8thPride of Dulcote 3/1 2nd Juveigneur 7/2 12th At the 2010 Festival 21 horses went off at SPs of 4/1 or less 18 (or 85.7%) lost their races. Horse SP Pos LAmi 4/1 2nd Garde Champetre 7/4 5th Captain Cee Bee 5/2 8th Voler La Vedette 9/4 3rd Go Native 11/4 10th Quevega 6/4 Won Somersby 4/1 2nd Dunguib 4/5 3rd Long Run 11/4 3rd Sanctuaire 4/1 Won Master Minded 4/5 4th Rite Of Passage 7/2 3rd Punchestowns 2/1 5th Shot From The Hip 3/1 20th Big Bucks 5/6 Won Poquelin 11/4 2nd Alfie Sherrin 11/4 12th Denman 4/1 2nd Kauto Star 8/11 F Carlito Brigante 7/2 4th Tell Massini 100/30 P Short-price layers come out on top at the Festival. Over the last few years the Cheltenham festival has proved to be a fertile source of shortpriced horses that get turned over. Festival races are more competitive than the market would suggest and laying more fancied runners on the exchanges has been a profitable strategy to adopt in recent times: Short-prices are no indication of winners at the pinnacle of racing. As far as recent Cheltenham Festivals are concerned, short-prices often indicate a horse that is over bet a situation where its price overestimates its true chances of winning. Top-class fields like those found at the Cheltenham Festival consist of multiple animals who can win often at prices which underestimate their true chances. Your betting strategy for the forthcoming Festival would benefit from incorporating that fact.The phenomenon is evident every year. Certain horses capture the public or the media imagination. It may be the result of an eye-catching early season performance or a bullish trainer making overconfident pronouncements. It might be because some forked-tongued bookmakers rep is talking the horse up and exaggerating ante-post support for the animal. Or it may just be because the media needs content and focuses on horses with newsworthy angles. Whatever the reason, prominence in the public mind almost certainly guarantees that the market will overreact and over bet the animals in question. The price about many such horses will contract to the point where the short price grossly overestimates their actual chance of winning the races they are contesting. Strategies for making the most of this information There are two ways to take advantage of the information contained in this short document. Firstly you could adopt a long-term view about your Cheltenham Festival betting. If youd opposed every single horse that has gone off at an SP of 4/1 or less since 2004 then youd have had 126 winning bets and 36 losing bets where the horses concerned won and you had to payout on the bets. If youd managed to lay each horse at SP prices on the exchanges youd now be sitting on a profit of 3169 to 100 level stakes. Over 7 Festivals that works out at an average of over 452 profit per festival to 100 level stakes a better performance than most punters will manage year on year. However, it should be noted that it isnt always possible to lay short-priced horses on the betting exchanges at exactly SP. Sometimes on the exchanges the horses trade at slightly bigger prices 4.2/1 as opposed to 4/1 for example. This has to be taken into account as it eats into profits a little if one of those horses wins and you have to pay out on your liability. That said it is also possible to lay drifting short price horses at shorter prices than they are eventually sent off at. The other thing to bear in mind is that Betfair charge 5% commission on the winning side of bets struck. If you lay a horse for 100 and it loses (which is a winning bet for you) then Betfair will pay 95 into your account the 100 you won minus the 5% commission. An alternative to laying all the runners going off at SPs of 4/1 or less is to cherry pick. This is what I prefer to do. Rather than see the 4/1 or less SP as an out and out reason to lay it, I choose to see the price as a reason to look more closely at a horse. If a horse looks like it is going to go off at a short price I will be looking very closely at its form records in an effort find holes, flaws and solid reasons why it might get beaten. I will also be scrutinising every piece of information and every comment I can find about the horse for the same reason. There are times when no negative points can be identified and in those instances the horse looks to be priced correctly. In these instances I will leave the horse alone. Master Minded is one such example from the 2009 Festival. He was a very short price but I just could not find a bona fide reason for laying him and my decision not to was vindicated when he won the Champion Chase without breaking sweat. The over-riding point is that the horses really fancied by the market at the Cheltenham Festival lose significantly more often than their short prices suggest they should and have a long-term history of doing so. This represents a real opportunity for exchange punters to profit by laying all or some of these runners on the exchanges. Cue Card (Supreme Novices Hurdle), Finians Rainbow (Arkle), Binocular (Champion Hurdle), Quevega (Mares Hurdle), Time For Rupert (RSA Chase), Master Minded and Big Zeb (both Champion Chase), Poquelin (Ryanair Chase), Big Bucks and Grand Crus (both World Hurdle) and Imperial Commander (Gold Cup) are all shaping up to look like laying possibilities for exchange punters over the duration of the 2010 Festival meeting. All these horses are currently trading at 4/1 or shorter for the races they are set to contest at Cheltenham. More will come to the fore in the markets over the next month or so. I wish you happy hunting, folks. Dont forget, Ill be providing extended Cheltenham coverage between now and the Festival previewing the action, highlighting key trends that keeping you up to date with the latest news, views and markets moves. Be Lucky, Nick Pullen
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